PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Dennis M. Bein AU - Brett H. Wander TI - Luck versus Skill AID - 10.3905/joi.2002.319521 DP - 2002 Nov 30 TA - The Journal of Investing PG - 27--30 VI - 11 IP - 4 4099 - https://pm-research.com/content/11/4/27.short 4100 - https://pm-research.com/content/11/4/27.full AB - If a manager has an outstanding track record, how can we tell how much this past success is due to luck versus skill? The complex nature of active portfolio management makes this assessment very difficult. This article provides a conceptual framework for thinking about this issue. A meaningful track record should reflect a significant number of investment decisions. It is not sufficient to simply outperform over what might appear to be a significant time horizon.