RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 The January Barometer
JF The Journal of Investing
FD Institutional Investor Journals
SP 25
OP 31
DO 10.3905/joi.2006.616841
VO 15
IS 1
A1 Lawrence D. Brown
A1 Liyu Luo
YR 2006
UL https://pm-research.com/content/15/1/25.abstract
AB Many investment practitioners rely on the “January barometer,” arguing that: “as goes January, so goes the rest of the year.” However, the empirical literature has not provided any evidence that the signs of January returns have superior predictive value for future market performance vis-´-vis the signs of stock returns in any other calendar month. By comparing the “January barometer” with other calendar month “barometers,” we demonstrate that the signs of January returns are superior predictors of the stock market for the next 12 months vis-´-vis the signs of stock returns in any other calendar month. Thus, our results add credibility to the notion of “January barometer.”TOPICS: Theory, in markets