TY - JOUR T1 - How Well Do Long-Term Bond Interest<br/>Rates Predict Stock Market Returns? JF - The Journal of Investing SP - 23 LP - 28 DO - 10.3905/joi.2013.22.2.023 VL - 22 IS - 2 AU - Klaus Volpert Y1 - 2013/05/31 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/22/2/23.abstract N2 - We observe that over the last 50 years, long-term interest rates in the U.S. have had a remarkable record of predicting stock-market returns, specifically in the 16- to 17-year range. We quantify this phenomenon and test via standard models and Monte Carlo simulations whether such a phenomenon is likely to arise by chance. We show that the probability for that is small, but not negligible.TOPICS: Performance measurement, simulations ER -