@article {Volpert23, author = {Klaus Volpert}, title = {How Well Do Long-Term Bond InterestRates Predict Stock Market Returns?}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {23--28}, year = {2013}, doi = {10.3905/joi.2013.22.2.023}, publisher = {Institutional Investor Journals Umbrella}, abstract = {We observe that over the last 50 years, long-term interest rates in the U.S. have had a remarkable record of predicting stock-market returns, specifically in the 16- to 17-year range. We quantify this phenomenon and test via standard models and Monte Carlo simulations whether such a phenomenon is likely to arise by chance. We show that the probability for that is small, but not negligible.TOPICS: Performance measurement, simulations}, issn = {1068-0896}, URL = {https://joi.pm-research.com/content/22/2/23}, eprint = {https://joi.pm-research.com/content/22/2/23.full.pdf}, journal = {The Journal of Investing} }