RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Long-Horizon Stock Predictability: Evidence and Applications JF The Journal of Investing FD Institutional Investor Journals SP 12 OP 20 DO 10.3905/JOI.2009.18.3.012 VO 18 IS 3 A1 Dale L Domian A1 William R Reichenstein YR 2009 UL https://pm-research.com/content/18/3/12.abstract AB This article updates prior studies and presents new evidence on the predictability of stock market returns. It examines the ability of two earnings yields to predict one- through 10-year real S&P 500 returns for 1881–2008 and 1953–2008. The upshot is that, as of year-end 2008, stock prospects look better than they have since at least the early 1990s. Based on evidence from Shiller’s model and a variant of that model, long-horizon stock prospects appear to be in line with historical averages, where stocks significantly outperformed Treasury bonds and bills. Finally, this study discusses investment implications and applications of this research.TOPICS: Factors, risk premia, security analysis and valuation, portfolio management/multi-asset allocation