TY - JOUR T1 - A Market Timing Myth JF - The Journal of Investing SP - 55 LP - 59 DO - 10.3905/joi.2000.319439 VL - 9 IS - 4 AU - John D. Stowe Y1 - 2000/11/30 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/9/4/55.abstract N2 - Several securities and plannig firms publish a demonstration of the dramatically reduced returms that an investor would see if the investor were out of the market for the 10, 20, 30, or 40 best days over a time period such as 5 to 10 years. They claim this is a demonstration of the pitfalls of market timing. As a counterexample, this article shows the dramatically enhanced returns if the investor is in cash for a similar number of the worst days. The probabilities of picking the best or worst days out of a larger number of days are shown to be minuscule. In fact, the probability of winning a lottery, or even several lotteries in a row, is better than the probability of replicating the investment results these firms are discussing. ER -