RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Can Recent Extraordinary Stock Returns Be Repeated? JF The Journal of Investing FD Institutional Investor Journals SP 71 OP 72 DO 10.3905/joi.2000.319416 VO 9 IS 2 A1 Charles P. Jones A1 Jack W. Wilson YR 2000 UL https://pm-research.com/content/9/2/71.abstract AB This article considers the recent great years in the stock market and attempts to place them in perspective. A probability analysis of the historical returns on the S&P 500 index produces several conclusions that may help investors assessing probable returns in the future. Included in the analysis are brief comments on the time diversification argument and the proposition that the DJIA could soon reach a level of 36,000. While investors enjoy high returns over the next few years, an analysis of the relevant probabilities that the likelihood of continuing extraordinary performance is small.