PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Charles P. Jones AU - Jack W. Wilson TI - Can Recent Extraordinary Stock Returns Be Repeated? AID - 10.3905/joi.2000.319416 DP - 2000 May 31 TA - The Journal of Investing PG - 71--72 VI - 9 IP - 2 4099 - https://pm-research.com/content/9/2/71.short 4100 - https://pm-research.com/content/9/2/71.full AB - This article considers the recent great years in the stock market and attempts to place them in perspective. A probability analysis of the historical returns on the S&P 500 index produces several conclusions that may help investors assessing probable returns in the future. Included in the analysis are brief comments on the time diversification argument and the proposition that the DJIA could soon reach a level of 36,000. While investors enjoy high returns over the next few years, an analysis of the relevant probabilities that the likelihood of continuing extraordinary performance is small.