PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Charles P. Jones
AU  - Jack W. Wilson
TI  - Asset Allocation Decisions—Making the Choice Between Stocks and Bonds
AID  - 10.3905/joi.1999.319385
DP  - 1999 Feb 28
TA  - The Journal of Investing
PG  - 51--56
VI  - 8
IP  - 1
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/8/1/51.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/8/1/51.full
AB  - Given renewed interest in bonds, this article considers asset allocation decisions in the context of realized returns for bonds and stocks. The study is based on new and improved data on bond returns covering long periods of time as well as calculations of the probabilities associated with stock bond returns. An analysis of these probabilities using inflation-adjusted returns suggests that the probability of earning sizable compound rates of return with bonds is not only small, but also declines over time. Therefore, despite recent strong performance by bonds, our results suggest investors should be cautious in making asset allocation decisions.