Pension Assets, Corporate Earnings, and Expected Return Assumptions

Abstract

Corporate earnings can be enhanced by means of pension fund accounting. The critical factor is the rate of return assumptions on plan assets, particularly in light of recent dramatic changes in stock market returns and today's reduced estimates of expected future returns. The rate of return assumptions made by a number of S&P 500 companies are unusually optimistic when the probabilities of realizing these returns are calculated. In fact, the earnings of several companies with defined-benefit plans may be significantly adversely affected in the next few years.